U.S. elections drama may be dragging Augur out of the doldrums.
The decentralized betting platform built on ethereum enjoyed a promising launch in July but then stagnated due to its clunky user experience and a general decline in the use of decentralized applications. As Tuesdayâs mid-term elections in the U.S. approach, however, money is pouring into the platform.
The market for âWhich party will control the House after 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?â has 3,517 ether or nearly $727,000 staked on it at the time of writing, according to Predictions.Global, a website allowing users to view and search for Augur markets.
The market has surpassed âWill price of Ethereum exceed $500 at the end of 2018?â â for months the market with the most open interest by a wide margin, with $523,000 staked at the time of writing. The mid-terms market is also the most liquid on the platform, according to Predictions.Global, with target liquidity over 250 ether.
The rush of funds into the mid-terms market â which gives the Democrats a 66 percent chance of taking the House, compared to an 88 percent chance on FiveThirtyEightâs poll-based model â has pushed the total dollar amount staked on Augur to a new record: nearly $2.1 million.
It should be noted, though, that Augurâs open interest in ether terms (currently 10,134 ether) has been rising consistently. It was only due to etherâs declining exchange rate that dollar-denominated open interest did not exceed its July high until the end of October, as data compiled by the Twitter user âdefroiâ shows:
As another chart defroi produced for CoinDesk shows, the increase in total open interest on the platform is due almost exclusively to the House prediction market, which began to surge on Oct. 22:
Augurâs languid daily user numbers, however, have not noticeably taken off. According to DappRadar, they range from 19 to 56 users per day in October. The all-time high, hit the day of the platformâs launch, is 256.
Even so, according to Predictions.Global co-founder Ryan Berckmans, the growth of the midterms market augurs well for the platform. âIt used to be very concentratedâ in the market for etherâs year-end price, he said. âThatâs still a big market, but the diversification into different verticals is a very good sign.â
By verticals, he explained, he meant the expansion beyond cryptocurrency price derivatives â the largest category by open interest and betting volume â and into other areas such as politics.
U.S. Capitol image via Shutterstock