U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted last year he isnât a huge fan of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.Â
Theyâre ânot money,â he wrote in July, saying their value is âhighly volatile and based on thin air.â
Now, crypto traders outside the U.S. can make their feelings known â and perhaps some money â on the 45th U.S. president. This week a digital token, Trump 2020 with the symbol TRUMP, launched courtesy of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
FTX says the new token will work like a futures contract, allowing traders to take long positions (Trump wins) or short ones (total loser).
âTRUMP expires to $1 if Donald Trump wins the 2020 U.S. presidential general election, and $0 otherwise,â FTX says in a posting on its website.Â
Some online sites, such as Oddschecker.com, have set up venues to bet on the coming election, which is shaping up to be historic: Trump is expected to be the first incumbent president to face voters following an impeachment trial. The president was acquitted Wednesday by the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate of impeachment articles brought by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.Â
But the new FTX contract might represent the crypto industryâs first attempt to cash in on the polarized voter climate surrounding Trumpâs 2020 prospects.Â
Theoretically, the tokenâs price should track roughly in line with the perceived odds of a Trump victory.Â
âIf you think thereâs a 52 percent chance of Trump winning, then TRUMP should trade at $0.52,â according to FTX. âBuying below there would be good, as would selling above $0.52.â
The token, which went live earlier this week, is currently trading at 62 cents after Trumpâs acquittal, implying a 62 percent chance heâll get four more years in Washington.
FTX is owned by a parent company based in Antigua and Barbuda, according to the firmâs website. Itâs led by Sam Bankman-Fried. His LinkedIn profile shows him to be a former trader with the New York-based firm Jane Street who jumped into the crypto industry in 2017. Heâs now based in Hong Kong.Â
For traders leery of the risks of volatile crypto markets, FTX posts a warning on the binary nature of the TRUMP tokenâs ultimate payoff: Price swings might be even more volatile than the notoriously up-now, down-now bitcoin. (Bitcoin is up 36 percent so far this year to about $9,800, after the price nearly doubled in 2019.)
âThe risk profile of TRUMP is different from BTC,â according to the website. âIt has significantly higher chances of making a large move (to $0 or $1).â
Addressing the potential for irregularities in the general election, the new TRUMP token comes with terms mapping out a contingency plan if the results are muddy and Trump refuses to leave office: âIn the event that some set of electoral votes cannot be projectedâ and itâs impossible to determine the winner, âthis contract will settle to $1 if Donald Trump is still president on February 1st, 2021, and $0 otherwise.âÂ