A push by El Salvadorâs president to embrace bitcoin as the countryâs legal tender is not seen as having much of an impact on the $663 billion bitcoin market, even if it does inspire other countries to do the same.
Investors, analysts and economists were assessing the potential price ramifications Monday after President Nayib Bukele said Saturday he will submit a bill this week to recognize bitcoin as the Central American nationâs legal tender.
So far, the market isnât giving much weight to the announcement and bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range over the past few days around $36,000, still well off the all-time high near $65,000 reached in mid-April.
Traders are still reeling from last monthâs 35% price retreat, which came after authorities in China moved to put fresh scrutiny and clamps on the cryptocurrency industry.
âCrypto is seen as a way of hedging against political turmoil, but it will need to reach critical mass. El Salvadorâs move is unlikely to counter Chinaâs given its relative size,â Santiago Espinosa, strategist at the independent investment research firm MRB, said in an interview.
El Salvador has a gross domestic product of $27 billion versus Argentinaâs $445 billion or Brazilâs $1.8 trillion. Chinaâs GDP was $14.2 trillion in 2019, according to the World Bank.
On the margin, the El Salvador bitcoin news might have helped to offset some of the bearishness in the market, according to Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
âBitcoin did not rally much on the news, but it did help counter some of the negative flows that stemmed from deepening China crackdown concerns,â Moya told CoinDesk in an email.
Other analysts pointed to bitcoinâs inefficient use as a medium of exchange as a reason for the lack of market enthusiasm following Bukeleâs announcement.
âWhat El Salvador needs is a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin with low transaction costs and low latency, given their native currency is already pegged to the U.S. dollar,â wrote Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at Duke Universityâs Fuqua School of Business, in an email to CoinDesk.
âThere are major obstacles both to making it work in a country with no functioning foreign exchange market and, even more importantly, getting the population to adopt it,â wrote Frances Coppola, columnist at CoinDesk.
Coppola pointed to other nations such as Venezuala where citizens often use digital U.S. dollars via payment apps such as Zelle versus bitcoin for everyday transactions.
Still, others viewed the El Salvador bitcoin move as another signal for the cryptocurrencyâs mainstream acceptance, which could be bullish for BTC over the long term.
âPeople can use bitcoin to reduce their tax liability with the government of El Salvador, creating a fundamental use case for bitcoin,â Ariel Zetlin-Jones, associate professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon Universityâs Tepper School of Business, wrote in an email to CoinDesk.
When Zapâs Jack Mallers, on stage at the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, introduced the video where Bukele made his announcement, Mallers described the move as âone small step for bitcoin.â
âItâs just another node on the network,â he said. âBut itâs a giant step, and a giant leap, for humanity.â
Longer term, according to Espinosa, thereâs the prospect that other emerging-market nations might follow the countryâs lead.
âDeveloping countries are way more prone to legitimize cryptocurrencies with a similar political backdrop,â Espinosa said.