Dinocrypto

DinoCrypto

Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price

Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price

Longer-term sentiment in bitcoin’s (BTC) options market remains bullish even as the the cryptocurrency struggles to claw its way back to $11,000.

  • Bitcoin's six-month put-call skew, which measures the cost of put options (bearish bets) expiring in six months relative to calls (bullish bets), is currently seen at close to -11%, according to data source Skew.
  • In other words, demand for call options expiring in six months is outstripping demand for puts.
  • The three-month skew is also leaning bullish at -5%.
skew_btc_25d_skew-6-3
Bitcoin put-call skew
Source: Skew
  • Since early September, skews for both these time frames have maintained a positive bias despite bitcoin's decline from $12,476 to $10,000 and more recent consolidation.
  • That consolidation is seeing bitcoin carve out a narrowing price range on the daily chart.
download-23-2
Bitcoin daily chart
Source: TradingView
  • Triangles, or low-volatility price consolidations, usually end with a violent move on either side.
  • According to the three- and six-month skews, investors appear to be anticipating a breakout.
  • Prominent analysts like Willy Woo have also suggested the path of least resistance is on the higher side, with on-chain data showing spiking influx of new investors into the bitcoin market.
  • According to Bannockburn's chief market strategist, Marc Chandler, the U.S. dollar's long-term trend is bearish. As such, bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets are unlikely to see big sell-offs.
  • Nevertheless, if the triangle pattern ends with a downside break, chart-driven selling may bring a re-test of September lows below $9,900.
  • Further, some investors appear to be hedging for a temporary price drop, a suggested by the positive 6.6% reading on the one-month put-call skew.
  • At press time, bitcoin is trading above $10,699, little changed since midnight UTC.

Also read: BitMEX Ether Futures Trading Contracts Fall by Half in Wake of US Charges

Disclosure
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.
FCA Bans Crypto Derivatives for Retail Consumers in UK
First Mover: Bitcoiners May Not Care if Dollar Keeps Its Reserve Status