Bitcoin has proven itself to be a risk asset, not a safe haven, with âconsiderableâ potential upside, according to a Friday note from JPMorganâs Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy team obtained by CoinDesk.
Writing to clients in âFlows & Liquidity,â one of JPMorganâs flagship publications, the authors said that characterizing bitcoin as a âriskâ asset rather than a âsafeâ asset is âmore appropriateâ based on the leading cryptocurrencyâs increased positive correlation with the Standard & Poorâs 500 Index since March.
Bitcoinâs function as a risk asset is âlikely more of a reflection of a need for an âalternativeâ currency rather than a need for a âsafeâ asset or âhedgeâ.â
âTo some extent, this is also true with gold,â the authors add, although the yellow metalâs volatility is notably lower than bitcoinâs.
How investors currently perceive bitcoinâs value implies that it could âcompete more intenselyâ with gold as an âalternativeâ currency over the coming years, the analysts wrote. Bitcoinâs role as a gold competitor is amplified by Millennial investorsâ interest in cryptocurrency, according to the note, and the inevitability of the younger investor demographic becoming âover time a more important componentâ of the investor universe.
Bitcoinâs market capitalization would have to increase by a factor of 10 before it could match the total private sector investment in gold, the authorâs note, adding that âeven a modest crowding out of gold as an alternative currency over the longer term would imply doubling or tripling of the bitcoin price from here.â
âIn other words, the potential long-term upside for bitcoin is considerable.â
Beyond Millennial investor interest, the note highlights the significance of corporate and legacy investor interest giving credibility to bitcoin as an investment vehicle. Specifically, PayPalâs Wednesday announcement of support for bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) is âanother big step toward corporate support for bitcoin,â according to the note.
The authors also identify âstrong growthâ institutional investor interest in bitcoin indicated by activity in CME futures and options markets. As of Thursday, for example, CME bitcoin futures markets quietly became the second-largest measured by open interest, overtaking BitMEX and Binance, two dominant crypto-only trading platforms.
Utility as a story of value isnât the only catalyst for potential upside, however. According to the authors, the price of bitcoin and altcoins could appreciate significantly if adopted as means of payment. âThe more economic agents accept cryptocurrency as a means of payment in the future, the higher their utility and value,â the note says.
Ultimately, even though bitcoin âlooks currently overbought for the near term,â the authors reiterate that the potential long-term upside for bitcoin is âconsiderable.â